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?權威人士一年三次現身黨報頭版,談經濟
瀏覽次數:1669發布時間:2016-10-22

開局首季問大勢

——權威人士談當前中國經濟

     jinnianshiquanmianjianchengxiaokangshehuijueshengjieduanhe“shisanwu”dekaijuzhinian,yeshituijingonggeicejiegouxinggaigedegongjianzhinian。yijidu,mianduicuozongfuzadeguoneiwaixingshi,woguoshixianlejingjifazhan、jiegouyouhua、minshenggaishandejiaohaokaiju,tongshiyemianlinyixilieshencengcimaodunhewenti。duiyudiaozhengzhongdezhongguojingjizenmekan、zenmegan?benbaojizhejinrizaicidujiacaifanglequanweirenshi,weizhongguojingjiwenzhenbamo。

  一、經濟形勢怎么看?

  ■經濟運行的總體態勢符合預期,有些亮點還好于預期。但經濟運行的固有矛盾沒緩解,一些新問題也超出預期。很難用“開門紅”“小陽春”等簡單的概念加以描述

  ■綜合判斷,我國經濟運行不可能是U型,更不可能是V型,而是L型的走勢。這個L型是一個階段,不是一兩年能過去的

  ■“退一步”為了“進兩步”。我國經濟潛力足、韌性強、回旋余地大,即使不刺激,速度也跌不到哪里去

  ■對一些經濟指標回升,不要喜形于色;對一些經濟指標下行,也別驚慌失措

  wen:jinnianyijidu,woguogdptongbizengchang6.7%,rengyunxingzaiheliqujian,haoyushichangyuqi。tongshi,qitayixiejingjizhibiaoyemingxianchuxiannuanse。yourenrenwei,zhongguojingjishixianle“kaimenhong”,yourenrenweishijinrule“xiaoyangchun”,gengyouleguanzherenweizhongguojingjiyichudi,jiangchengxianuxingfanzhuan。zheshibushishuomingjingjifazhandaqushifashenglebianhua?duiyuzhongguojingjiduanqihezhongchangqidezouxiang,nindepanduanshishenme?

  quanweirenshi:zongdekan,jinniankaijudejingjixingshipingwen。jingjiyunxingdezongtitaishifuheyuqi,youxieliangdianhuanhaoyuyuqi。danshi,jingjiyunxingdeguyoumaodunmeihuanjie,yixiexinwentiyechaochuyuqi。yinci,hennanyong“kaimenhong”“xiaoyangchun”dengjiandandegainianjiayimiaoshu。daodizenmekan?huanshiyaojianchiliangdianlun,huanshiyaojiehefazhanjieduanheguojibeijinglaikan。

  congyijiduxingshikan,womenxiwangwendefangmian,wenzhule,youxieshenzhihuanchuxianyixiangbudaodehuisheng。yijidugdpzengchang6.7%,jiuyexingshizongtiwending,juminshourupingwenzengchang。jingjijinrongfengxianzongtikekong,shehuidajuwending。bufengongyepinjiageyousuohuisheng,gongyeqiyexiaoyiyoujiangzhuansheng;gudingzichantouzijiakuai,xinkaigongxiangmudafuzengchang;fangdichanshichanggongxiaoliangwang,qukucunmingxianjiasu。

  womenxiwangjindefangmian,yeyoulexinjinzhan。fuwuyebizhongjixutisheng,xinmoshi、xinyetaijingxiangyongxian,yixiegaofujiazhi、gaojishuhanliangdechanpinkuaisuzengchang,juminxiaofeibuduanshengji,“wuyi”xiaochangjiaguoneilvyouhuobao,changsanjiao、zhusanjiaodengzhudongshiyingxinchangtai、zhuzhongxuqiufenxi、zhuiqiuchuangxinhezhiliangxiaoyidediqu,jingjizengchangdewendingxingjiaqiang。youqishigediqugebumenduigonggeicejiegouxinggaigezhongyaoxingderenshibuduantigao,anzhaozhongyangdeyaoqiuzhudongkaizhangongzuo,chengxiaozhengzaizhubuxianxian。

  raner,bukefouren,womenmianlindeguyoumaodunhuanmeigenbenjiejue,yixiexindewentiyeyousuobaolu。“wen”dejichurengranzhuyaoyikao“laobanfa”,jitouziladong,bufendiqucaizhengshouzhipinghengyalijiaoda,jingjifengxianfashenggailvshangsheng。tebieshiminyingqiyetouzidafuxiajiang,fangdichanpaomo、guoshengchanneng、buliangdaikuan、difangzhaiwu、gushi、huishi、zhaishi、feifajizidengfengxiandianzengduo。yixieshichanghuachengdujiaodi、chanyediduan、jiegoudanyidediqu,jingjixiaxingyalihuanzaijiada,jiuyewentituxian,shehuimaodunyousuojiaju。yinci,zaimianlindezhuyaomaodunshijiegouxingerbushizhouqixingdeqingkuangxia,“jin”caishi“wen”degenji。“jin”,jiushijiejuejingjiyunxingzhongdegonggeice、jiegouxing、tizhixingwenti,zhexuyaoshijian,muqianhuanchuzaiqibuqi,xindonglihuantiaobuqidaliang。

  zonghepanduan,woguojingjiyunxingbukenengshiuxing,gengbukenengshivxing,ershilxingdezoushi。

  woyaoqiangdiaodeshi,zhegelxingshiyigejieduan,bushiyiliangniannengguoqude。jinhoujinian,zongxuqiudimihechannengguoshengbingcundegejunanyichuxiangenbengaibian,jingjizengchangbukenengxiangyiqianneiyang,yidanhuishengjiuhuichixushangxingbingjielianshixianjiniangaozengchang。“tuiyibu”weile“jinliangbu”。womenduizhongguodefazhanqianjingchongmanxinxin,woguojingjiqianlizu、renxingqiang、huixuanyudida,jishibuciji,suduyediebudaonaliqu。duici,yidingyaoneihuayuxin、waihuayuxing。duiyixiejingjizhibiaohuisheng,buyaoxixingyuse;duiyixiejingjizhibiaoxiaxing,yebiejinghuangshicuo。

  ■分化是經濟發展的必然。有的資源開始尋找新去處,這就產生了創新;有的比較遲鈍,還停留在原處等著熬著,指望著什么時候“風水輪流到我家”

  ■在新常態下,我們最需要優化資源配置,培育新動力、形成新結構,這意味著分化越快越好

  ■無論是地區、行業還是企業,總有一部分在“二八定律”的分化中得到“八”的好處,脫穎而出,前景光明

  wen:zaijingjihuinuandetongshi,womenyezhuyidao,dangqianjingjiyunxingfenhuaqushiyuyimingxian,dongbuyanhaidiqujingjiqiwenhuishengshitouqiangjing,dandongbeihezhongxibudiquyixieziyuanxingshengfendejingjiyiranbijiaokunnan,youwaidianchengwei“lianggeshijie”。zhezhongzoushifenhuachuandichushenmexinhao?

  quanweirenshi:fenhuashijingjifazhandebiran。

  zaishichangjingjitiaojianxia,ziyuanwangwangxianggaoshouyilingyujizhong,chuxianchanyetonggouhuaqushi,yiduanshijianhou,jiuhuixingchengchannengguosheng,chanshengguodujingzheng,chaoelirunxiaoshi。cishi,youdeziyuankaishixunzhaoxinquchu,zhejiuchanshenglechuangxin;youdebijiaochidun,huantingliuzaiyuanchudengzhuaozhu,zhiwangzhushenmeshihou“fengshuilunliudaowojia”。zheliangzhongqingkuangxingchengdefenhuaqushi,shiguilvshiran。

  zaixinchangtaixia,womenzuixuyaoyouhuaziyuanpeizhi,peiyuxindongli、xingchengxinjiegou,zheyiweizhufenhuayuekuaiyuehao。wulunshidiqu、xingyehuanshiqiye,zongyouyibufenzai“erbadinglv”defenhuazhongdedao“ba”dehaochu,tuoyingerchu,qianjingguangming。huanyouyibufen,changdaokutou,danyejiqulejiaoxun,zhidaoxiayibugaizenmebanle。wokanyebushishenmehuaishi。

  gaigekaifangyilai,woguojingjikaishijiasufenhua,zaiciguochengzhong,yongxianchuyipiyouhuolidediqu、youjingzhenglidexingyeqiye、jiaodexiangdezhimingpinpai。guojijinrongweijihou,shijiejingjifenhuajiakuai,woguojinruxinchangtai,guoneidejingjifenhuajinyibujiaju。qunian,zhongyangzaifenxiyijidujingjixingshishitichu,fanshizhudongshiyingxinchangtai、zhongshichuangxinhezhiliangxiaoyide,fazhantaishidoubijiaohao;fanzhi,yalidoubijiaoda。jinnianzhegequshihuanzaiyanxu,shenzhizaijiaju,queshishi“jijiahuanlejijiachou”。zaikeyujiandeweilai,zaijingjifenhuazhong,woguojiangbuduanmaochugengyouhuolidediqu、gengjuguojijingzhenglidexingyeheqiye,danyouxiediqu、xingyeheqiyeriziyehuiyuelaiyuenanao。yuqikuao,burukugan。xianzaizhexiediqu、xingyeheqiyedeganbuqunzhongzhengzaipaoqihuanxiang,ziliziqiang,zhudongcugaigezhuachuangxin,lizhengyingtouganshang。

  二、宏觀調控怎么干?

  ■促進宏觀經濟健康發展,供給側和需求側的招數都要用,但在不同階段,側重點和著力度是不一樣的

  ■當前及今后一個時期,供給側是主要矛盾,供給側結構性改革必須加強、必須作為主攻方向。需求側起著為解決主要矛盾營造環境的作用,投資擴張只能適度,不能過度,決不可越俎代庖、主次不分

  wen:congyijiduqingkuangkan,gudingzichantouzidehuisheng,duiyujingjiqiwenfahuileguanjianyinlingzuoyong。youyizhongguandianrenwei,duanqicijirengranhaoyong、guanyong、huanyaojixuyong。duicininzenmekan?zuohaojingjigongzuodezongjidiao、zongsiluruhebawo?

  quanweirenshi:zheshidajiayilunbijiaoduodeyigewenti,yeshiguojishanggaoduguanzhudewenti。nengbunengbawohaozhegewenti,jiyingxiangyanqian,youshejichangyuan。

  cujinhongguanjingjijiankangfazhan,gonggeicehexuqiucedezhaoshudouyaoyong,danzaibutongjieduan,cezhongdianhezhulidushibuyiyangde。dangqianjijinhouyigeshiqi,zuizhongyaodeshizhengquelijiezhongyangtichude“zaishidukuodazongxuqiudetongshi,zhulijiaqianggonggeicejiegouxinggaige”zhejuhua,yejiushishuo,gonggeiceshizhuyaomaodun,gonggeicejiegouxinggaigebixujiaqiang、bixuzuoweizhugongfangxiang。xuqiuceqizhuweijiejuezhuyaomaodunyingzaohuanjingdezuoyong,touzikuozhangzhinengshidu,bunengguodu,juebukeyuezudaipao、zhucibufen。

  zuohaojingjigongzuo,bixuanzhaozhongyangjingjigongzuohuiyidejuecebushu,renzhenguanchedangdeshibajiewuzhongquanhuijingshen,laogushuliheguancheluoshichuangxin、xiediao、lvse、kaifang、gongxiangdefazhanlinian,jianchiwenzhongqiujingongzuozongjidiao,jianchishixing“hongguanzhengceyaowen,chanyezhengceyaozhun,weiguanzhengceyaohuo,gaigezhengceyaoshi,shehuizhengceyaotuodi”dezongtisilu。dangqian,luoshihaoyishangxinlinian、zongjidiao、dasilu,hongguanzhengceyaotuchusangeyaoqiu:

  yishishidukuodazongxuqiu,jianchishixingjijidecaizhengzhengcehewenjiandehuobizhengce,zhuzhongbawozhongdian、jiezou、lidu。

  ershijiandingbuyiyituijingonggeicejiegouxinggaigeweizhuxian,zhuyanyujiaozhenggongxujiegoucuopeiheyaosupeizhiniuqu,quanmianluoshi“quchanneng、qukucun、quganggan、jiangchengben、buduanban”wudazhongdianrenwu。

  sanshizhuzhongyindaolianghaofazhanyuqi,zengqianggefangmianduijingjifazhandexinxin。

  zaigongzuozhongyaozuodao“lianggequebao”:

  yishiquebaozhongyangyidingdezhengcebuzouyang、bubianxing。yaoquanmian、zhunque、buzhebukoudiguanchezhongyangjingjigongzuohuiyijingshen,wenjiandehuobizhengcejiuyaozhenzhengwenjian,jijidecaizhengzhengcejiuyaozhenzhengjiji,gonggeicejiegouxinggaigedezhuxianjiuyaogengjiatuchu。

  ershiquebaozhongyangdezhengceluodishenggen。zhongyangduociqiangdiao,yifenbushu、jiufenluoshi。yaofayangdingdingzijingshen,bajinniandejingjizhengcezhenzhengluodi。shidukuodazongxuqiuhetuijingonggeicejiegouxinggaigeyidedaogefangguangfanrenke,zhiyouzhashixiangqianmaijin,cainengjiejuezhiyuejingjishehuifazhandenandianwenti,shijingjixingshibuduanchaozhuhaodefangxiangzhuanhua。

  ■樹不能長到天上,高杠桿必然帶來高風險,控制不好就會引發系統性金融危機,導致經濟負增長,甚至讓老百姓儲蓄泡湯

  ■不能也沒必要用加杠桿的辦法硬推經濟增長。最危險的,是不切實際地追求“兩全其美”,盼著甘蔗兩頭甜,不敢果斷做抉擇

  ■我們明確了股市、匯市、樓市的政策取向,即回歸到各自的功能定位,尊重各自的發展規律,不能簡單作為保增長的手段

  ■保持戰略定力,多做標本兼治、重在治本的事情,避免用“大水漫灌”的擴張辦法給經濟打強心針,造成短期興奮過后經濟越來越糟

  ■要把控好“度”,既不過頭,也防不及。即使方向正確、政策對路,一旦用力過猛,不但達不到預期目的,還會釀成風險

  wen:yijidudechengjidanxianshi,yixiewentizhengzaidedaohuajie,lingyixiewentiyouluchumiaotou;jingjigongzuomianlin“liangnan”“duonan”he“yiguoduoyin”“yiyinduoguo”defuzaxing。neime,hongguandiaokongdezhulidianjiujingyinggaifangzainali?

  quanweirenshi:suhuajiang,“jiajiayoubennanniandejing”。butongguojiayoubutongdekunnan,butongshiqiyeyoubutongdekunnan,zhehenzhengchang。wentizaiyuruhezhunquepanduankunnandexingzhi,caiquzhengquecuoshijiayijiejue。gaigekaifangyilai,womenbingcheng“zhiyaojingshenbuhuapo、banfazongbikunnanduo”delinian,tanranzhengshikunnan、jijikefukunnan,yongyuchuangguanduoai、papoguokan,yidianyidiangongjianpobing,yinianyinianfazhanzhuangda,yibuyibuzouleguolai。

  dangqian,queshicunzaiyixie“liangnan”huo“duonan”dewenti。zuituchudebiaoxianshi,yifangmianjingjimianlinxiaxingyali,lingyifangmianshitijingjigaoganggan,ruguojiyukefuxiaxingyali,gangganlvjiuhuijinyibutigao,zenmeban?neijiuyaojutifenxiwentidexingzhi,kankannagewentigengshiyaohai。

  woguolaodonglizongliangzhunianjianshao,chanyejiegouzaiyouhuadiaozheng,jishijingjichuxianjiaodafuduxiaxing,shehuijiuyeyenengbaochizongtiwending,hekuangwoguojingjiyexiaxingbudaonaliqu!suoyizhongyangyizhiqiangdiaobuyizengsulunyingxiong。danshi,gangganwentijiubuyiyangle。shubunengchangdaotianshang,gaogangganbirandailaigaofengxian,kongzhibuhaojiuhuiyinfaxitongxingjinrongweiji,daozhijingjifuzengchang,shenzhiranglaobaixingchuxupaotang,neijiuyaomingle。zhemeyibijiao,jiuzhidaogongzuodezhulidianyinggaifangzainaer,jiuzhidaobunengyemeibiyaoyongjiaganggandebanfayingtuijingjizengchang,“liangnan”yejiuchengle“yinan”。zuiweixiande,shibuqieshijidizhuiqiu“liangquanqimei”,panzhuganzheliangtoutian,buganguoduanzuojueze。biru,yixieguojiacengchangqishishicijizhengce,jileilehendapaomo,jieguozaizhengcexuanzeshang,yaomeweichiyingenkuansongrenyouwujiafeizhang,yaomeshoujinyingenshipaomopolie,neicaishizhenzhengde“liangnan”,zuoyoubushi!

  anzhaozhegesilu,womenjiumingquelegushi、huishi、loushidezhengcequxiang,jihuiguidaogezidegongnengdingwei,zunzhonggezidefazhanguilv,bunengjiandanzuoweibaozengchangdeshouduan。gushiyaolizuyuhuifushichangrongzigongneng、chongfenbaohutouzizhequanyi,chongfenfahuishichangjizhidediaojiezuoyong,jiaqiangfaxing、tuishi、jiaoyidengjichuxingzhidujianshe,qieshijiaqiangshichangjianguan,tigaoxinxipiluzhiliang,yanlidajineimujiaoyi、gujiacaozongdengxingwei。huishiyaolizuyutigaohuobizhengcezizhuxing、fahuiguojishouzhizidongdiaojiejizhi,zaibaochihuilvjibenwendingdetongshi,zhubuxingchengyishichanggongqiuweijichu、shuangxiangfudong、youdanxingdehuilvyunxingjizhi。fangzishigeirenzhude,zhegedingweibunengpianli,yaotongguorendechengzhenhua“qukucun”,erbuyingtongguojiaganggan“qukucun”,zhubuwanshanzhongyangguanhongguan、difangweizhutidechabiehuadiaokongzhengce。

  zhaodaolezhulidian,zaicaozuoshanghuanyaobawohaoliangdian:

  yishibimianduanqihuaxingwei。quanqiujingjiyaocongguojijinrongweijizhongzouchulai,xuyaojingliyigejiaochangguocheng。woguojingjijinruxinchangtai,jiegoudiaozhengshiyigeraobuguoqudekan,shiyichangmianmianyongli、jiujiuweigongdechijiuzhan。zaizheyangdexingshixia,bixubaochizhanlvedingli,yaoshulixinxin,jiandingzhanshengkunnandejuexin,baochidishuichuanshidenaixin,duozuobiaobenjianzhi、zhongzaizhibendeshiqing,bimianyong“dashuimanguan”dekuozhangbanfageijingjidaqiangxinzhen,zaochengduanqixingfenguohoujingjiyuelaiyuezao。

  ershibimianbushidu。wulunshixuqiuzhengcehuanshigonggeizhengce,wulunshicaizhengzhengce、huobizhengcehuanshijiegouzhengce,wulunshifazhanzhengce、gaigezhengcehuanshishehuizhengce,douyaobakonghao“du”,jibuguotou,yefangbuji。jishifangxiangzhengque、zhengceduilu,yidanyongliguomeng,budandabudaoyuqimude,huanhuiniangchengfengxian。biru,huifufangdichanshichangzhengchangyunxing,qudiaoyixiebuheshiyidexingzhengshouduanshibiyaode,danjiarugaodaliduciji,biranzhizaopaomo,zhegejiaoxunbixujiqu。

  三、供給側結構性改革怎么推?

  ■推進供給側結構性改革是當前和今后一個時期我國經濟工作的主線,往遠處看,也是我們跨越中等收入陷阱的“生命線”,是一場輸不起的戰爭

  ■目前,一些方案已基本成型。接下來中央還要專題研究,并盡快推動貫徹落實

  ■“五大任務”是一個系統設計,每項任務都很吃重。從具體操作看,飯要一口一口吃,路要一步一步走

  wen:duiyugonggeicejiegouxinggaige,guojishehuigaodupingjia,guoneishehuipubianguanzhu。zhexianggaigeshifouyixingchengyilanzichengshudegongzuofangan?congyijidujingjiyunxingqingkuangkan,xiayibutuijingonggeicejiegouxinggaigedezhongdianhenandianshishenme?

  quanweirenshi:zhongyangtichu,tuijingonggeicejiegouxinggaigeshidangqianhejinhouyigeshiqiwoguojingjigongzuodezhuxian,wangyuanchukan,yeshiwomenkuayuezhongdengshouruxianjingde“shengmingxian”,shiyichangshubuqidezhanzheng。congquanqiukan,yuelaiyueduodeguojiarenshidao,jiegouxinggaigecaishizouchuyanqiankunjingdegenbenzhice,danzheshixuyaofuchudaijiade。xifangguojiaduodangzhizhengdeguji,meijigezhengzhijiaganyuzhenzhengfuzhuxingdong,jieguoshi“xinxiang”er“shibucheng”。womenyouzhiduyoushi,yidingyaoxingchenggongshi、henxiajuexin,mabutingtixiangqianzou,qianfangbaijizhualuoshi,zhashizuoweijianchengxiao。

  qunianyilai,zhongyangduigonggeicejiegouxinggaigeconglilunsikaodaojutishijian,douzuolequanmianshenkechanshu,congdingcengsheji、zhengcecuoshizhizhizhongdianrenwu,doujinxinglequanliantiaobushu。zaijinnian1yuefenzhaokaidezhongyangcaijinglingdaoxiaozudishiercihuiyishang,zhuantiyanjiulegonggeicejiegouxinggaigesilu,tichule“wugegaoqingchu”,jigaoqingchuxianzhuangshishenme,gaoqingchufangxianghemudeshishenme,gaoqingchudaodiyaoganshenme,gaoqingchushuilaigan,gaoqingchuzenmeban。

  anzhaozheyangdeyaoqiu,zhongyanggebumenjinluomigu,renzhenxizhikaizhandiaochayanjiu,zhidingjutigongzuofangan。muqian,yixiefanganyijibenchengxing,zhenduixingjiaotuchu、zhengcecuoshijiaomingque,kecaozuoxingyejiaoqiang。jiexialaizhongyanghuanyaozhuantiyanjiu,bingjinkuaituidongguancheluoshi。tongshi,gediyezhudongjijikaizhangongzuo,guangdong、zhongqing、jiangsu、zhejiang、shanxidengluxufabulebenshengdegonggeicejiegouxinggaigefangan。bushaoqiyeyimaichushizhixingbufa,zhudongyizhimangmukuozhangchongdong,shousuozhanxian、tuchuzhuye,youdeyicong“jianliangtizhi”zhuanwei“liangzhishuangsheng”。

  gonggeicejiegouxinggaigedewudarenwushiyigexitongsheji,meixiangrenwudouhenchizhong,gexiangrenwuzhijianyouguanlianhubuzuoyong,douyaotongchoujiangu,dongtaiyouhua,jijituijin。congjuticaozuokan,fanyaoyikouyikouchi,luyaoyibuyibuzou,gejieduanyeyaoyoubutongdezhulidian。nianchuyilai,yixiezhengceyiluxuchutai,biru,jiangchengbendecuoshibuduanchongshi,buduanbandelidubuduanjiada。xiayiduan,huajieguoshengchanneng、chuzhi“jiangshiqiye”dengcuoshiyehuixiangzongshentuijin。zhexianggongzuode“jianfa”secaijiaonong,bukebimianshejirenheqian,jijiuyehezhaiwuwenti,nanduheyaoqiudoubijiaogao。

  ■我們的目的是為了更多地減少行政干預,讓市場機制更多地發揮好決定性作用。但“解鈴還須系鈴人”,減少行政干預離不開政府自我革命

  ■那些本身沒有行政干預、市場機制發揮較好的領域,就別再去指手畫腳了

  wen:nianchuzhijin,quchanneng、qukucunkaishizaiyixiedifangchuxianchengxiao,danxingzhengganyuzaiqizhongdandangzhuzhongyaojiaose,youciyinfayixiezhenglun,shenzhiyouyulunzhiyi“quchanneng”shi“yidaoqie”“gaotanpai”“jihuajingjilaoyitao”。zaigonggeicejiegouxinggaigejinchengzhong,xingzhengshouduanshifoubiyao?zhengfuyushichangdeguanxiyingdangzenmebai?

  quanweirenshi:zheliyaoliqingmudeheshouduandeguanxiwenti。womendemudeshiweilegengduodijianshaoxingzhengganyu,rangshichangjizhigengduodifahuihaojuedingxingzuoyong。danshikaoshenmeshouduannengzuodaozheyidian?“jielinghuanxuxilingren”,jianshaoxingzhengganyulibukaizhengfuziwogeming。biru,jianshaodui“jiangshiqiye”debutie,bukaoxingzhengmingling、dankaoshichangxingma?

  dangran,neixiebenshenmeiyouxingzhengganyu、shichangjizhifahuijiaohaodelingyu,jiubiezaiquzhishouhuajiaole。biru,xiaofeipinlingyushichanghuachengdugao、jingzhengxiangduichongfen,shichangnenggouzidongchuqing,tamenqubuquchannengwanquankeyiyikaoshichangdiaojie。yijuhua,buguanyongnazhongshouduan,zuizhongdoushiweileyouxiaofahuishichangzaiziyuanpeizhizhongdejuedingxingzuoyonghegenghaofahuizhengfuzuoyong,zheshituijingonggeicejiegouxinggaigebixubawohaodeguanjiandian。

  wancheng“wudarenwu”,gejizhengfuyaojijizuowei、zhudongzuowei、daitouzuowei:

  quchanneng,gediyaomingquejutirenwuhejutimubiao,jiadahuanbao、nenghao、zhiliang、biaozhun、anquandenggezhongmenjianzhunru、zhidujianshehezhifalidu;chuzhi“jiangshiqiye”,gai“duannai”dejiu“duannai”,gaiduandaidejiuduandai,jianjuebadiao“shuyeguan”he“huxiji”。

  quganggan,yaozaihongguanshangbufangshuimanguan,zaiweiguanshangyouxudapogangxingduifu,yifachuzhifeifajizidengluanxiang,qieshiguifanshichangzhixu。

  qukucun,yaojiadahujizhidugaigelidu,jianlijianquannongmingongjinchengdecaishui、tudidengpeitaozhidu。

  jiangchengben,jiuyaobazhengtishuifujiangxialai,babuhelideshoufeiquxiaodiao,baxingzhengshenpijianxialai。

  buduanban,jiuyaozhuzhongtuopingongjiandejingzhundu,zhashituijinkejichuangxinheshengtaiwenmingjianshe,wanshanjichusheshijianshe“qiancongnalilai、toudaonaliqu”detizhijizhi。

  ■短期內,穩增長與調結構之間可能存在矛盾。處理好“穩”與“調”的關系,關鍵是把握好“度”,掌握正確的方法論,把深化改革作為主要抓手

  ■依靠過剩產能支撐的短期經濟增長不僅不可持續,而且承受的痛苦比去掉這些產能要更大、痛的時間會更長

  ■要加減乘除并用。在去掉無效產能的同時,也要增加有效供給,培育新的發展動力

  ■舊的不去,新的不來。相當多的地區包括一些中西部地區,讓人感覺“士別三日當刮目相看”

  wen:xianzaiduiquchanneng、qugangganyouxieyilv,renweiyuwenzengchangcunzaiyidingchongtu,huijiadajingjixiaxingyali,zhegewentizenmekan?shichangchuqingle,houmiannengfoujiedezhujiedehao?

  quanweirenshi:zhegewentideshizhishiruhechuliduanqihezhongchangqideguanxi。

  congchangqikan,wenzengchangyudiaojiegoushiyizhide,jiegoudiaozhengshijingjikechixuzengchangdezhongyaodonglihebaozhang,quchanneng、qugangganyouzhuyujiegouyouhuahejingjidechangqijiankangfazhan。duizheyidian,dajiayouhenqiangdegongshi。danzaiduanqinei,wenzengchangyudiaojiegouzhijiankenengcunzaimaodun。liru,quchannenghuoxuhuiyingxiangyixiedifangdegdphecaizhengshouru,qugangganhuishiyixiefengxianxianxinghua。danruguobuqu,buyaoshuochangqiwenbuzhu,duanqixiaoguoyeyuelaiyuecha,“jiangshiqiye”huiyuelaiyueduo,zhaiwuyuejiyuezhong,jiajucaizhengjinrongfengxian。chulihao“wen”yu“diao”deguanxi,guanjianshibawohao“du”,zhangwozhengquedefangfalun,bashenhuagaigezuoweizhuyaozhuashou。

  bixumingque,yikaoguoshengchannengzhichengdeduanqijingjizengchangbujinbukechixu,erqiechengshoudetongkubiqudiaozhexiechannengyaogengda、tongdeshijianhuigengchang。biru,yixiechannengguoshenglingyudeqiye,kuisunjiada,tuoqiandegongzizengduo,yinxinghentongku,zhigongyehentongku,erqieyuetuoyuetongku。zenmeban?changtongburuduantong。duizhexieqiyejinxing“qingpan”,jikeyishifangchutudi、xindaidengxiqueziyuan,yeshizhexieqiyedezhigongzainarushebao、jieshoupeixunhouzoushangxingangwei,kandaoxinxiwang。

  tuijingonggeicejiegouxinggaigeyaojiajianchengchubingyong。zaiqudiaowuxiaochannengdetongshi,yeyaozengjiayouxiaogonggei,peiyuxindefazhandongli。zhejixuyaojuexin,yexuyaoyaodingqingshandenuli、shishizaizaidezhengce。shijianzhengming,jiudebuqu,xindebulai。xiangdangduodediqubaokuoyixiezhongxibudiqu,zaizhelunfazhanzhong,yunyuleyidapixindongli,xianxianchushengjibobodejingxiang,rangrenganjue“shibiesanridangguamuxiangkan”。buguo,gebiedifangjiudemaodun、lishifudanjiaoda,duanqidiaozhengqueshinanyijianxiao,danyedemaikaibuzi,“yuqilinyuanxianyu,burutuierjiewang”。

  四、預期管理怎么辦?

  ■穩預期的關鍵是穩政策,不能搖來擺去

  ■要善于進行政策溝通,加強前瞻性引導,提高透明度,減少誤讀空間,及時糾偏,避免一驚一乍,不搞“半夜雞叫”

  ■我們的成績和不足都擺在那里。對成績不能說過頭,對問題不能視而不見,甚至文過飾非,否則會挫傷信心、破壞預期

  wen:zhejinian,duiyujingjifazhanqianjingdeyuqibushihenwending,leguanqingxuyubeiguanlundiaobingcun。congzhongkejian,duijingjixianzhuangheshichangxingweideshenruyanjiuhuanbugou,cunzai“guandianpianzhi”dexianxiang。zaizhezhongqingkuangxia,yingdangruhetouguoxianxiangkanbenzhi,yindaohaoshehuixinliyuqi?

  quanweirenshi:yuqibingfeiwuzhongshengyou,yebushiwuguantongyang,talaizixianshi,youyingxiangzhuxianshi。zaishehuizhuyishichangjingjitiaojianxia,hongguandiaokongbenzhishangshiyuqiguanli。guojijinrongweijihou,shijiejingjigengjiafuzaduobian,daozhiyuqibuquedingxingjiada。zaizhezhongqingkuangxia,womengengyaozhuzhongjiaqiangyuqiyindao。

  zenmewenyuqi?guanjianshiwenzhengce。

  shouxian,dazhengfangzhenbunengdongyao,hexinshijianchizhongguoteseshehuizhuyizhidu,jianchi“yigezhongxin、lianggejibendian”dejibenluxian。zheyidian,zhongyangconglaimeibianguo,erqieduocizhongshen,neihanyuejiangyueqingchu,gedigebumendouyaozhunquebawo,buzhebukouluodaoshichu。

  qici,hongguanjingjizhengcebunengyaolaibaiqu。tuijingonggeicejiegouxinggaigedezhengcedaoxiangyuemingque,luoshiyueyouli,shichangyuqijiuyuehao。fanzhi,ruguowomenhuanzouxuqiucijidelaolu,shichangjiuhuidanxinchiyi、wusuoshicong。

  disan,yaoshanyujinxingzhengcegoutong,jiaqiangqianzhanxingyindao,tigaotoumingdu,shuoqingzhengcemudehehanyi,jianshaowudukongjian,jishijiupian,bimianyijingyizha,bugao“banyejijiao”。

  huanyou,tigaoyulunyindaodekexinduyehenzhongyao,bixushishiqiushi,naniehaofencun。womendechengjihebuzudoubaizaineili,shidangdezhengmianxuanchuanduiyindaoyuqi、tizhenxinxinshibiyaode,danshi,duichengjibunengshuoguotou,duiwentibunengshierbujian,shenzhiwenguoshifei,fouzehuicuoshangxinxin、pohuaiyuqi。duixueshushang、zhuanyexingdebutongyijian,yaoyunxugeshujijian,gulicongzhuanyecengmianzhankaitaolun,zhenliyuebianyueming,duiwendingyuqiyehuiqidaojijicujinzuoyong。

  ■不但要肯干、敢干,還要能干、會干,這就需要更好地發揮三個“關鍵少數”的積極性、主動性、創造性

  ■讓企業家既有“恒產”又有“恒心”。建立“親”和“清”的新型政商關系,把企業家當作自己人,讓他們充分體會到權利平等、機會平等、規則平等。在一些具體政策執行上,不要盲目翻舊賬,使創業者有安全感

  wen:zaidangqianjingjidahuanjingxia,rendezuoyonggengweizhongyao,tebieshi“sanzhongren”,jiqiyejia、chuangxinrencai、gejiganbu。zaininkanlai,zhexiequntidejijixingyoumeiyoujifachulai?zenyangxingchengquanmiantuidonggonggeicejiegouxinggaigedeheli? 

  quanweirenshi:renshishengchanlizhongzuihuoyuedeyinsu。shiyingheyinlingjingjixinchangtai,budanyaowomenkengan、gangan,huanyaowomennenggan、huigan,zhejiuxuyaogenghaodifahuiqiyejia、chuangxinrencai、gejiganbudejijixing、zhudongxing、chuangzaoxing。xianzai,tuijingonggeicejiegouxinggaigerangdajiayoulefangxiang,youlexiwang,gongzuojijixingyuelaiyuegao,nenggan、huiganderenyuelaiyueduo,chengxiaoyehuiyuelaiyuemingxian。tongshi,yeyaokandao,bulijie、bushiyingdexianxiangyirancunzai,fahuishangshusange“guanjianshaoshu”dezuoyong,huanyaozuodalianggongzuo。

  qiyejiashiyouhuaziyuanpeizhi、tigaogonggeitixishiyingnenglidezhudaoliliang。tuijingonggeicejiegouxinggaige,jixufahuiqiyejiadechuangxinjingshen,baokuomianguangliangdademinyingqiyejia。xianzaizuiguanjiandeshitongguobaohuchanquan、zhishichanquan,shiqiyejiajiyou“hengchan”youyou“hengxin”。yaojianli“qin”he“qing”dexinxingzhengshangguanxi,baqiyejiadangzuozijiren,rangtamenchongfentihuidaoquanlipingdeng、jihuipingdeng、guizepingdeng。zaiyixiejutizhengcezhixingshang,buyaomangmufanjiuzhang,shichuangyezheyouanquangan。

  五、經濟風險怎么防?

  ■今年伊始發生的股市匯市動蕩,反映出一定的脆弱性。要避免把市場的這種“超調”行為簡單理解成只是投機帶來的短期波動,而要從整個金融市場的內在脆弱性上找原因

  ■在現實情況下,要徹底拋棄試圖通過寬松貨幣加碼來加快經濟增長、做大分母降杠桿的幻想。對各類金融市場存在的風險隱患,監管部門要密切配合,摸清情況,做好預案

  wen:qunianzhijin,yinxingyelirunxiahuahebuliangzichanlvshangshengposhouguanzhu。yijiduzihuanqiutiyuchangyeyidufashengjiaodabodong。mianduijingjixiaxingyali,womennengfoushouzhubufashengxitongxingquyuxingjinrongfengxiandedixian?  

  quanweirenshi:jinrongshixiandaijingjidehexin,zhegehexinchulewentihuituoleiquanju,huituoleiquanmianxiaokangdeshixian。jinguanwoguojinrongfengxianzhengtikekong,tebieshiyinxingtixizongtikangfengxiannenglijiaoqiang,danjinnianyishifashengdegushihuishidongdang,yefanyingchuyidingdecuiruoxing。yaobimianbashichangdezhezhong“chaodiao”xingweijiandanlijiechengzhishitoujidailaideduanqibodong,eryaocongzhenggejinrongshichangdeneizaicuiruoxingshangzhaoyuanyin。qizhong,gaogangganshi“yuanzui”,shijinronggaofengxiandeyuantou,zaigaogangganbeijingxia,huishi、gushi、zhaishi、loushi、yinxingxindaifengxiandengdouhuishangsheng,chulibuhao,xiaoshihuibianchengdashi。

  dangqian,zuizhongyaodeshianzhaogonggeicejiegouxinggaigeyaoqiu,jijiwentuotuijinquganggan。zailiyonghuobikuozhangcijijingjizengchangbianjixiaoyingchixudijiandeqingkuangxia,yaochedipaoqishitutongguokuansonghuobijiamalaijiakuaijingjizengchang、zuodafenmujiangganggandehuanxiang。duigeleijinrongshichangcunzaidefengxianyinhuan,jinrongjianguanbumenyaomiqiepeihe,moqingqingkuang,zuohaoyuan。muqianyinxinghuaizhangchuyushangshengqushi,shijingjiwentizaijinrongbumendebiranfanying。zhiyaowomenyongyumiandui,zhudongyingdui,buyangaihetuoyanfengxian,jieguojiumeineimekepa。

  ■對那些確實無法救的企業,該關閉的就堅決關閉,該破產的要依法破產,不要動輒搞“債轉股”,不要搞“拉郎配”式重組,那樣成本太高,自欺欺人,早晚是個大包袱

  ■“保人不保企”,把人員的安置作為處置“僵尸企業”、化解過剩產能的重中之重。能培訓的培訓,能轉崗的轉崗,確實不能轉崗的要做實做細托底工作

  wen:bansui“quchanneng”,bufendiquheqiyechuxianrenyuanxiagang,zhezaigangmeixingyegengtuchu,shenzhiyouyixiedifangchuxianquntixingshijian。qingwen“quchanneng”shifouhuigeijiuyedailaichongji,jineryinfayingxiangshehuiwendingdefengxian?yinggaizenyangtuoshanchuzhi?

  quanweirenshi:wendinghekuodajiuyeshihongguanjingjizhengcedezhongyaomubiao。congmuqianqingkuangkan,woguojiuyexingshizongtishiwende,meichuxiandadebodong。tongshi,yecunzaiyixieshencengcijiegouxingwenti,suizhuchanyejiegoudiaozheng,gaojinengrencaiduanque,jinengjiaochadejiandanlaodongliyousuoguosheng,laodonglishichangzhengfahuidiaozhenggongneng,dangengyaojindeshijiaqiangduilaodongzhedejinengpeixun。dangqianjiuyelingyuzuituchudewentishi,dui“jiangshiqiye”dechuzhi、duichannengguoshengxingyedediaozhenghuiyinqixiagangyalixianxinghua。zhelunxiagangdexingyehediqujiaojizhong,dabufenshiguoyouqiye,qizhonghenduoshi40—50suizhigong。womenyaojianchiyirenweiben,wanshanxiangguanzhengce,jiangjiugongzuofangfa,wentuoshenshendiquchanneng:

  yishijiandingbuyituijingonggeicejiegouxinggaige,“baorenbubaoqi”,yongyuchuzhi“jiangshiqiye”。womenqiangdiaoyaoduojianbingzhongzu、shaopochanqingsuan,danduineixiequeshiwufajiudeqiye,gaiguanbidejiujianjueguanbi,gaipochandeyaoyifapochan,buyaodongzhegao“zhaizhuangu”,buyaogao“lalangpei”shizhongzu,neiyangchengbentaigao,ziqiqiren,zaowanshigedabaofu。

  ershiyaobarenyuandeanzhizuoweichuzhi“jiangshiqiye”、huajieguoshengchannengdezhongzhongzhizhong。nengpeixundepeixun,nengzhuangangdezhuangang,queshibunengzhuangangdeyaozuoshizuoxituodigongzuo。yaoyourenwenguanhuai,daizhuganqing,jiangxinbixin,sheshenchudiweitamenzhuxiang,jibangtamenjiejuehaoshenghuokunnan,youzhutamentigaozaijiuyenengli。zhecichannengguoshengdailaideyidajiaoxunshi,julishangyilunguoqigaige10duonianhou,guoqi“renfuyushi”renghenyanzhong,zhigong“xiabulai”“caibudiao”,qiyebanshehui、zhengqibufen、qishebufendewentiyirantuchu。benlunguoqigaigeyidingyaozaizhefangmianqudeshizhixingtupo,zhenzhengbaguoqijianchengnengmianduishichangjingzheng、yizhiliangxiaoyiweidaoxiangdexiandaiqiye。

  ■社會上認為通脹的人在增加,認為通縮的也不少,各有各的理由。還不能匆忙下結論

  ■保持警覺,密切關注價格的邊際變化,尤其是工業品、消費品、資產的價格及其相互作用。對部分食品漲價問題,既要加強調配、保障供給,也不能反應過度,干擾價格信號

  wen:jinnianyilai,roujiacaijiazougao,laobaixinghenguanzhu,yeyoudanyou。ruhejifangfankenengchuxiandetongzhangfengxianyezhuzhongfangfantongsuofengxian?

  quanweirenshi:chulihaowujiawenti,shihongguandiaokongdeyonghengzhuti。

  congquanqiujingjikan,meiguokaishijingjuetongzhangdejixiang,erouzhou、ribendouzaiquanlifantongsuo,xinxingshichangguojiadeqingxinggebuyiyang,dazongshangpinjiagebodongjiaju。congwoguolaikan,jiagexingshiyequyufuza。zaigongyeshengchanzhechuchangjiagezhishu(ppi)xiajiangdeguochengzhong,gangcai、meitandengjiagemingxianfandan。zaijuminxiaofeijiagezhishu(cpi)zongtiwendingdeqingkuangxia,zhurou、xiancaijiagedafushangzhangqiezaichunjiehourengjugaobuxia,zheduanshijianxiancaijiageyidafuhuiluo,zhuroujiageshou“zhuzhouqi”yingxiangkenenghuanhuiyanxuyizhen。ciwai,yierxianchengshifangdichanjiageshangzhangjiaokuai,bufenfuwulingyujiagechixushangzhang。mianduizheyangdexingshi,shehuishangrenweitongzhangderenzaizengjia,renweitongsuodeyebushao,geyougedeliyou。

  yiwokan,huanbunengcongmangxiajielun。yifangmian,channengguoshengyiranyanzhong,gongyepinjiagezongtixiajiangdequshiyishinanyigenbengaibian,wujiapubiandafushangzhangquefashitizhicheng;lingyifangmian,shichangliudongxingchongyu,juminxiaofeinengliwangsheng,chuxianyanzhongtongsuodekenengxingyebuda。danshi,womenbixubaochijingjue,miqieguanzhujiagedebianjibianhua,youqishigongyepinjiage、xiaofeipinjiage、zichanjiagejiqixianghuzuoyong。duibufenshipinzhangjiawenti,jiyaojiaqiangdiaopei、baozhanggonggei,yebunengfanyingguodu,ganraojiagexinhao,duichengshidishouruqunti,gejizhengfuyaojishigenjinbutiezhengce,zuohaotuodigongzuo。

 

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